How Polling Hurts, Not Helps, Our Political System

Many people think that polling is an accurate measure of public opinion. They do not know to what extent and depth these polling companies strive for in formulating results. As of 2004, only 28 percent of American’s age 25 and over had completed a college degree of some sort (www.census.gov); where most people are introduced to statistics, the class that explains surveying and its’ faults. I am not saying that 72 percent of Americans that age and over are completely ignorant to the skepticism surrounding polls, but it is very likely that they aren’t aware of the extent of the inaccuracies. If polls are relying on the ignorance of the American people to be successful, they are not acting in the best interests of the country. This blog will explain many of the reasons polls are inaccurate and will show how these inaccuracies of polling are hurting our political system today.

The first way that polling hurts our political system is how unrepresentative it is. In many cases, people have to be willing to answer phone interview questions, reply to mail surveys, or reply to an email that may be lengthy and seem pointless. The people that reply to these have enough time, first of all, to answer these questions and two, probably have a strong opinion either about one political party or another, or maybe have a strong opinion about not having an opinion. People also do not pay attention to what type of poll it is, and who was surveyed in the first place. Also, many questions might be worded where it is supposed to confuse the person taking the poll as to have the results go in favor of the polling company. For example, in a position poll, if a pollster were to ask someone, “Do you support the killing of fetuses?” they would probably say no, but if they were to ask, “Are you pro-choice?” than they would receive a much more accurate representation of the question they are asking. No one wants to say they support the killing of fetuses, obviously. The ways in which these positions are framed have a large impact on how the people being polled will answer. This is a strategy that polling companies use in order to get the results they want, to hopefully show politicians what stances they should support themselves. So not only do these polling companies trick the listeners, they then use this skewed information and sway the politicians as well.

Because polling companies are trying to stay in the eye of the public, they try to show information that the public would want to see. However, sometimes this does not include people or issues that the polling companies do not want to address. Since polling is a multimillion-industry that is driven by political information, they most likely have an agenda. For example, the Gallup poll asked Republicans who they would like to see run for the GOP ticket and for president in the 2012 election, and they excluded Ron Paul from the available choices. He had much more accredited credentials than many of the people mentioned, along with the fact that he ran for the GOP ticket in 2008 and as the presidential candidate for the Libertarian candidate in 1988. The fact that he was not mentioned on the list was a statement from the Gallup Poll that they do not want him to run. Whatever it is about Ron Paul that is not in their best interests is unknown, but if he were to be a favorable candidate for Gallup he would have been mentioned. What this does, though, is eliminates Ron Paul from the minds of many Republicans. Instead of thinking of who the Gallup Poll left out, they think of which of the presented people they would like see pursue the GOP ticket. The polls can shape the mindset of the people in this way, which is limiting and hurting our political system.

The last aspect of misrepresentation that affects the political system is the coverage that polls present. Actually, Hollihan quoted a reporter in Uncivil Wars that said because reporters and the media cover politics as such a horse-race, “citizens feel detached and bored because it is so seemingly abstract.” This “race-to-the-finish” presentation of the poll results make citizens feel as if they have no control over the outcome of the election, even though votes have not even been administered. This reporter may be correct about some citizens, but others see polls as a threat or a call to action. Through research, Hollihan has found that “public opinion polls have a significant impact on voter expectations for how well a candidate will do in an election and thus may also affect voter behavior.” For example, many people may actually be threatened by a poll, see that their candidate is falling behind, and be more likely to make it to the voting booths on Election Day. On the other hand, voters that see the favorable candidate for them is “winning” in the polls, may not turn out on election day because they feel safe that their candidate will succeed, when that is many times not the case.

Many of the problems with polls, is that people have no idea that they are so inaccurate. As addressed in the beginning of this blog, almost ¾ of the American people over 25, who are the majority of voters, do not have a college degree. This does not mean that these people are not intelligent; it just means they may not have known about all of the discrepancies and misinterpretations that are associated with polling. Unless they seek information on that topic, it is not taught until statistics in college. Because of this lack of knowledge, the ignorant believe-everything-you-hear attitude is unknowingly adopted, making these polls successful. Sample sizes of the data may be very small, and the smaller the sample size the more inaccurate the data is. They could also be polling in an area that is heavily weighted on one side of the political spectrum or another. Even if they call or send mailers out all around the country, polling companies only receive responses from those who have a strong opinion, or, those who have enough time on their hands to answer all questions presented and get them back to the polling company. These results, although nationally representative, do not include those who do not have time to reply, and those who do not wish to share their political positions.

Although polls can sometimes be helpful in forming opinions of elections and the positions of the country, they cannot be trusted as being an accurate representation of the public mindset. There are far too many factors not considered in each type of poll taken to be a nationally representative, accurate portrayal of what the American people actually believe and want for their country. They hurt the political system more than they help it, because not only are voters deceived and their actions sometimes changed because of it, but politicians are deceived as well and change their positions in order to please this false sense of necessity actually imposed by polling companies.

Sources:
http://www.gallup.com/Home.aspx

Hollihan, Thomas A. Uncivil Wars. 2nd ed. Print.

www.census.gov